Systematically earning money and getting rich with sports betting – that is the dream of almost every sports fan who opens an account with an online bookmaker for the first time in their life. No wonder, because the way sports betting works supports and promotes this dream. Anyone who has ever bet on an entire Bundesliga match day for fun in the classic 3-way system and combined their results in a combination bet knows this.
Why there are high winnings, but serious players practically never get rich with sports betting
The total odds quickly reach the high three-digit range. It is not uncommon for the chances of winning to even be in the four-digit range. And that for just one euro. If the bet is then placed with ten euros, a single combination bet would be sufficient and with a win of 10,000 to 20,000 euros, everyday money worries would fade into the background for the time being. Or finally nothing will stand in the way of your dream vacation in the summer.
The problem is that statistics show that only 5% of all people who place at least three sports bets a month actually make a profit at the end of the month. And that number should alarm you on two counts as a beginner looking to make quick money.
● First, the frightening conclusion is that 95% of all people who regularly place sports bets lose money – and that means more specifically, 19 out of 20 people lose their money.
● And secondly: The fact that 5% of all tipsters make a profit every month does not mean that these 5% are getting rich, let alone living off of it. It is certainly possible that, given the large number of players in the world, it happens with recurring regularity that someone hits the “jackpot” again and again or turns a combination bet with ten or more tips into a high five-figure win. But as we all know, there are one or even several lottery winners in Germany every Saturday and Wednesday. The sober truth is: Of the 5% of all players who make monthly profits, only a very small fraction can actually live off of it. Serious players rarely get rich from it. However, with clever systematic sports betting, you can still earn a nice additional income.
In today’s sports betting guide, we would like to show you why this is the case and how it works exactly, thereby dispelling once and for all the myth that sports betting promises quick money. In fact, it takes hard work not to fall into one of the typical beginner’s traps.
7 beginner mistakes
Do you want to be one of the 5% of players who disapprove of bookmakers as much as the local football team coming to the all-you-can-eat buffet? Then the very first step you need to take is to realize that it takes a lot of hard work. Just having a good feel for most games you can bet on over a long period of time does not make a system. It’s actually called luck.
While professional tipsters are happy to add a little bit of luck at the right time, it must be made clear that, as long as you stick to the rules, you don’t have to rely on luck in the long term and systematically to win, because if you guess correctly, you increase the probability of getting a side. But one thing at a time. Let’s now look at the seven beginner mistakes that should be avoided.
- Betting without mathematical foundations
- Leave the bet to chance
- Only type in the classic 3-way system
- Be active with only one provider
- Too many batteries play
- Start with exceptions
- Losing sight of the goal
1. Betting without mathematical foundations
Are you one of those students who refused to believe the unwelcome math teacher that you would need that stuff later in life? In fact, this is true of sports betting, because the fundamental mistake that causes 95% of all gamblers to lose regularly every month is making bets that are mathematically bankrupt.
For example, if you place a single bet every weekend on the big European clubs, such as Paris Saint-Germain in Ligue 1, FC Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, Juventus in Serie A or even FC Barcelona in La Liga to win your game on domestic football in the league, you will most likely suffer big losses even if you win the majority of all bets. Simply because the sum of the winnings does not outweigh the few times that the favorites statistically always get it wrong. Even in their most dominant seasons in recent years, for example, Bayern have never won more than 80% of their league games. Often only around 75%. A similar figure to the other teams mentioned. And that only means that out of ten favorite tips submitted, two or three will fail. So if you only make a few euros seven or eight times with often ridiculous odds, this can even be below the 1.10 mark in home games of the favorite (e.g. 1.04 or 1.06) – even if you are playing for very high stakes. If you then have two or three outliers, you will be heading straight into the loss zone.
Before placing a sports bet, it is therefore always necessary to calculate the probability of a bet’s potential success. Using the odds advertised by the bookmaker of your choice, you can then calculate whether there is a positive expected value. The number one beginner’s mistake is either not doing any calculations at all or, against your better judgment, placing bets that are associated with a negative expected value.
2. Leave the bet to chance
A positive expected value does not mean that you should invest half of your balance. Even a 75% probability of occurrence can fail 25 times in a row before you start winning note after note and become positive in the long run. Probability has no memory. If you roll six dice, you will not roll each number exactly once, but will have pairs, triplets, or possibly even several of the same number while others have not rolled at all. But if we roll millions or even billions of dice, the probability will eventually settle at the 16.67% that is mathematically assigned for each number.
However, if you leave betting to chance and do not care at all about the stake (bankroll management), the first losing streak you experience will mean bankruptcy. Long-term profit is therefore also categorically impossible. This requires you to use a mathematical formula to calculate the correct stake for each bet slip you submit. Ultimately, it is very simple. The information you need, including the formula, can also be found on our website:
This is how you calculate the optimal stake and practice serious money management in sports betting!
3. Only type in the classic 3-way system
Many tipsters place their sports bets primarily with the aim of adding more excitement to the experience during the game. Because if you tip the underdog, you can cheer them on until the favorite pulls away, and vice versa.
This is precisely why you can usually only find the odds for the classic 3-way system for every Bundesliga game on the Bundesliga page in the program of every sports betting provider, while for further betting options you have to open the often confusing menu. Result tips are considered pure gambling, while beginners in particular are often hopelessly overwhelmed by the many other markets. The menu is quickly closed again and you can bet on a win, a draw or a loss – that’s for sure.
And that is obviously a really big beginner’s mistake. Since the payout ratio for sports betting is never anywhere near 100%, but sometimes even well under 90% (90 to 95% is usual), it is possible that in the 3-way system not a single bet will lead to a positive expected result. Or if one of the three options does, then only very narrowly. For example, you need a predicted probability of occurrence of 65%, but in connection with the odds the value is only given as 64.3%. In the long term, you will make a profit (note: don’t forget the betting tax when calculating the value!), but only a very small profit. There is also the risk that your 65% was incorrect. Therefore, only play tips for which you have a buffer of at least 3%. So if the odds have a minimum probability of 64.3%, you should have set at least 68% in your analysis for the tip to have value.
However, if you cannot find any value bets in the 3-way system, you can still find them on one of the many other betting markets. Often they are even really attractive and profitable. So be familiar with as many betting markets as possible! For this purpose, we strongly recommend the various guides on our website, which we link to below:
● betting strategy over/under 2.5 goals
● Both teams face a betting strategy
● halftime/fulltime betting strategy
● draw betting strategy
● goalscorer betting strategy
● handicap betting strategy
● double chance betting strategy
● draw-no-bet strategy
4. Only be active with one provider
Basically, in this article we don’t want to tempt you to open an account with the best online betting providers on the market. However, you should know that it will be difficult to be successful in the long term and to systematically make money with sports betting if you only bet with a single bookmaker. The reason for this is obvious: every bookmaker has different strengths. For example, Bet365 is considered a top provider with excellent odds for all three options in the classic 3-way system, while Interwetten, in turn, offers excellent odds for the favorites. It is not uncommon to find the best odds in the entire network when betting on the favorite in the classic 3-way system in the Bundesliga.
To cut a long story short, once you have found the best possible betting market, it is also important to find the best odds offered for that market. As such, it is advisable to split the budget you plan to spend on sports betting between three or four operators so that you do not lose cash because the only bookmaker you are registered with is your brand name. Outsider Tip does not offer such brilliant odds as another bookmaker.
5. Too many batteries playing
There is a Bundesliga combination bet strategy, which we discuss in detail in the corresponding guide article on our website, but we also make it very clear in this very important guide that combination bets are the first step towards defeat. It is not for nothing that providers lure customers with attractive bonuses that are paid out in addition once a certain number of tips have been received. This is precisely because the probability that such certificates will quickly fall into the low per mille range is decreasing. And no one who is even halfway serious about the topic can really plan for this.
Consider how many attempts it would take to win a single bet with a 75% probability if you were on a losing streak. It could be the first, but it could also be the 26th or the 100th. With a combination bet with a probability of 0.00005%, we quickly reach lottery dimensions. If you see sports betting as pure gambling, we wish you good luck with your bets and hope that you win big. But if you really want to make money with sports betting, then the combination bet is anything but your friend.
6. Start with exceptions
If you play seriously for a few weeks or months, you will eventually come across a tip that you recognize as having value, but then shy away from it because you don’t give the bet a chance. Let’s say FC Bayern Munich is playing at home against the bottom team in the league. A crystal clear number. However, the odds for the underdog are 26.00. This means that a probability of just 4% that the underdog will pull off the big win brings a positive expected value to the bet. And you have to be able to invest this value with all probability. After all, two Bundesliga teams are playing against each other here. Of course, there are clear favorites and roles within a league. All 22 players on the pitch are thoroughbred professionals. And in the end, every game still starts with a 50:50 score and no game is automatically lost.
But if you shy away from playing the underdog bet and instead say, “Oh, I’ll skip that one,” just because you’ve lost money on similar bets in previous weeks, that’s also a crystal clear rookie mistake. Serious players turn off their emotions at this point and focus on the clear rules of mathematics. And they tell you, first, to play the bet, and second, how much money you can spend on it so you don’t go broke. So stick to your guns and don’t even start making exceptions like that!
7. Losing sight of the goal
Last but not least, it is always a long-term goal to systematically earn money with sports betting. Getting rich in the short term is simply impossible with a serious game! This is only possible by placing risky combination bets with excessive stakes. And the probability that you will lose all your money within a few betting slips is 99.9%.
So never forget that you will only be paid at the end of the month or year. Playing sports means that you have got your bet 100% right, but in the end you still lose because of the laws of probability. The trick is to make sure that the winnings outweigh the losses. It can also mean that there is a phase where you do absolutely nothing and lose 10, 20 or 50 bets in a row. We wouldn’t wish that on you, but unfortunately it happens to the best and most successful tipsters. Nobody reported bad luck. Dealing with these losing streaks is where the wheat is separated from the chaff.
If you lose sight of the goal, you might place a risky live bet out of emotion, for example after losing a lottery ticket, in order to make up for the losses in one fell swoop. This is the first step towards a solid tip, which ultimately made quite a few tipsters into the 95% who failed with their plan to systematically make money with sports betting.
Another popular mistake and a hasty reaction that loses sight of the goal: using the very insidious cash-out function and selling the bet prematurely – almost always with losses and even with smaller winnings with ultimately negative expected value, which we will discuss in detail in the corresponding guide article.
Therefore, make sure you follow all the rules and never lose sight of the goal, even in the bad phases that are common in sports betting (the good news is that there are also lucky streaks).
How much money can you realistically win each month if you follow the rules?
If you play by the rules, you can realistically turn 10 to 20% of your balance into winnings if you play regularly. This means that you really need to build up a large bankroll if you want to make a living from it. Because to earn 100 euros relatively safely, you would need a bankroll of 1,000 euros.
At this point, this may be sobering news for anyone who wants to get rich from sports betting. The naked truth, however, is that these 10 to 20% are the only things that can be promised seriously and soberly. Nevertheless, take a positive attitude: as a die-hard fan, you will probably follow the Bundesliga games anyway. Accordingly, preparing and analyzing the games should not take up much time. If you do not withdraw the money in the first year, but continue to build up your balance, you will also find yourself in areas where it becomes increasingly attractive. And as soon as you have 1,000 euros in your account, we are talking about an additional income of 100 to 200 euros per month, for which you hardly have to make any significant effort.
It is important that you avoid shortcuts here too. It would not be a beginner’s mistake to deposit 1,000 euros into your account right at the start (but only if you can afford it 100% and this money is not missing from an important household budget). start to generate higher turnover. Nevertheless, it is advisable to practice with smaller amounts for a few months to see whether you have what it takes to avoid the seven beginner’s mistakes mentioned here that prevent you from systematically making money with sports betting on the Bundesliga. Because don’t forget: 95% of all tippers are proven to lack this ability.
We keep our fingers crossed!